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Market Update: Tariff Pause Boosts Sentiment, Fed Stead

Market Update: Tariff Pause Boosts Sentiment, Fed Stead

Investor sentiment dramatically changed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other members of the Trump administration announced a temporary pause on tariffs with China. Was that sentiment shift warranted and did anything materially change? Estimates of the...

Finding Value Among the Muni Market Malaise

Finding Value Among the Muni Market Malaise

The municipal bond market faced significant volatility in April, driven by spillovers from a turbulent Treasury market. Treasury yields were pressured higher by rising inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance, reduced foreign demand; hedge...

Tariff Turmoil: Where Do We Go from Here?

Tariff Turmoil: Where Do We Go from Here?

Markets got quite a surprise from the Trump administration last week in the form of tariffs above even the most aggressive forecasts, increasing the risks to economic growth and corporate profits. China quickly retaliated, Europe may follow with tariffs of their own,...

Market Correction Perspective

Market Correction Perspective

U.S. equity markets officially entered correction territory last week for the first time in 344 trading days. Tariff uncertainty feeding into economic growth concerns has been the primary catalyst behind the risk-off rotation. The 10% drop — the technical qualifier...

Earnings Season Recap: Strong Growth, Big Upside, Now What?

Earnings Season Recap: Strong Growth, Big Upside, Now What?

Fourth-quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and it has been a good one. S&P 500 companies grew profits more than 18% year over year, according to FactSet data, with mega cap technology and financial companies doing most of the heavy lifting (about seven...

Tariffs Ignite a Metals Melt-Up

Tariffs Ignite a Metals Melt-Up

Stocks continued to climb the wall of worry last week and shrugged off tariff headlines, inflation volatility, and signs of a slowdown in retail spending. President Trump reinstated a full 25% tariff on all steel imports — effectively closing any loopholes and...

U.S. Exceptionalism: Is It Still Intact?

U.S. Exceptionalism: Is It Still Intact?

With China’s DeepSeek pressuring investors to take a closer look at the current environment of artificial intelligence (AI) development within the U.S., some are taking a moment to question the accuracy of a much larger idea — American Exceptionalism. Ever since the...

Q4 Earnings Preview: Mix of Solid Growth and Policy Uncertainty

Q4 Earnings Preview: Mix of Solid Growth and Policy Uncertainty

Earnings season is underway and, thanks to the banks, it’s off to a good start. Currently, consensus estimates are calling for a strong 12% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Steady economic growth should be...

Evaluating Stock and Bond Market Predictions From 2024

Evaluating Stock and Bond Market Predictions From 2024

With 2024 fully behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate our winning calls from last year while also reviewing some mistakes to learn from them and improve our process. The good news is we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses. Some course...

A Golden Age for Income Investors

A Golden Age for Income Investors

To say the U.S. economy has been difficult to read is an understatement. From generationally high inflation and interest rates to concerns about the labor market, it’s no wonder consumers are unsure about the overall health of the economy. In fact, in June, 59% of...

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