blog
Our Blog

U.S. Exceptionalism: Is It Still Intact?
With China’s DeepSeek pressuring investors to take a closer look at the current environment of artificial intelligence (AI) development within the U.S., some are taking a moment to question the accuracy of a much larger idea — American Exceptionalism. Ever since the...
Q4 Earnings Preview: Mix of Solid Growth and Policy Uncertainty
Earnings season is underway and, thanks to the banks, it’s off to a good start. Currently, consensus estimates are calling for a strong 12% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Steady economic growth should be...
Evaluating Stock and Bond Market Predictions From 2024
With 2024 fully behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate our winning calls from last year while also reviewing some mistakes to learn from them and improve our process. The good news is we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses. Some course...
A Golden Age for Income Investors
To say the U.S. economy has been difficult to read is an understatement. From generationally high inflation and interest rates to concerns about the labor market, it’s no wonder consumers are unsure about the overall health of the economy. In fact, in June, 59% of...
Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism
Looking back, 2024 clearly echoed many of the themes from 2023. By and large, the economy continued to defy expectations and surprised once again. Stocks continued their strong performance, driven by powerful trends in artificial intelligence and technology. On the...
Trade, Tariffs, and Inflation
Trade dynamics have shifted considerably since President Trump’s first administration. Reshoring among U.S. businesses and headwinds to the Chinese economy may limit the inflationary impact from rogue trade policy. It’s a Whole New World One of the biggest fears for...
Election Stock Market Playbook
As Election Day approaches, we discuss potential stock market implications of various possible outcomes. But before we get into that, we offer our regular public service announcement around elections and investing. Political views are best expressed at the polls and...
Q3 Earnings Should Be Fine, but Expectations Beyond This Quarter Are High
The bar for third quarter earnings is low, with analysts currently expecting only about a 3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). That low bar and a supportive economic environment points to potential upside. However, stocks may already be pricing in...
Just When We Recalibrated, Another Shock Arrived
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said last month’s decision to cut the fed funds target rate by a half percentage point was due to a “recalibrating” policy, as the Fed follows its dual mandate regarding inflation and growth. The new buzzword — recalibration —...
Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts
Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the...