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Early Keys to 2026
In a year that could easily be defined by a few different words — including but not limited to tariffs, technology, or more broadly, uncertainty — capital markets have plugged along splendidly. Despite a near-bear market correction in April, the S&P 500 and U.S....
From Micro to Macro: A Busy Week of Market-Moving Data
There was no shortage of headlines on both the micro and macro levels last week. Earnings season ramped up as nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap reported third quarter (Q3) results, including a handful of mega cap companies. Monetary policy captured most of...
Cockroaches, Canaries, and Credit Markets
In corporate credit markets, early indicators of stress often emerge subtly — not through dramatic dislocations, but through nuanced shifts in borrower behavior and market dynamics. Much like canaries in coal mines once signaled invisible threats, and Jamie Dimon’s...
Q3 Earnings Season Preview: Little Suspense
We believe corporate America will follow up an outstanding second quarter earnings season with another good one in the third quarter. Support from a resilient economy, tariff mitigation measures, artificial intelligence (AI) investment, and currency should offset...
The Intersection of Political Uncertainty and Global Debt Markets
Global bond markets have sold off recently due to uncertainty surrounding key political changes most notably in France and Japan. Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, resigned last week, which adds a potential shift in fiscal policy to concerns about slowing...
Calm Before the Storm: Can This Rally Continue in September?
The winning streak for stocks continued in August, as the S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive month of gains. It was an informative month for investors, as we learned that the labor market may not be as solid as expected, tariffs have had a minimal impact on...
Grand Ideas at the Grand Tetons
As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes,...
Stocks Sailing Smoothly Through Policy Crosscurrents So Far
We’re all ready to put the tariff talk to bed. But don’t worry. While this commentary provides an update on the tariff situation, there’s more happening on the policy front than just tariffs. Whatever policy we highlight, it’s clear that the stock market is sailing...
Midyear Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets Outlook: Higher for Longer
The Jekyll and Hyde Bond Market: A Tug of War Between Economic Data and Deficit Spending Within fixed income markets, a tug of war has unfolded between two opposing forces, much like the classic tale of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. The benevolent Dr. Jekyll emerges when...
LPL Research Presents: 2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Pragmatic Optimisim, Measured Expectations
We started 2025 on a high note, although we acknowledged that “no market environment is ever permanent, and that change is always potentially around the corner.” Well change did come, and with it, volatility, perhaps in part because we assumed President Trump’s...