At LPL Research, our 2023 investing outlook started with a theme of returning to normalcy. Considering 2022’s market volatility and the aftereffects of the pandemic, the idea of finding balance was certainly a welcomed change. It’s a theme we could all embrace six months ago and what we will continue to rally around through year-end.
That’s not to say that 2023 hasn’t come with its own set of challenges. We saw two regional banks fail in rapid-fire succession in March—and another closed its doors in May. Collectively representing over $530 billion in assets, the trio ranks as the second, third, and fourth largest bank failures to date.
We also held our breath as a last-minute deal to raise the debt limit came together as the clock ticked closer to default. Despite the market gyrations these events caused and the banking sector still on tenterhooks, the overall financial system seems stable.
By and large, these are things we know, definitively or directionally, a guiding force that shapes our perspective on the next six months or so. Like anything, they come with some potential opportunities for investors—opportunities that may present themselves in international equities, core bonds (particularly if the Fed is indeed done raising rates), and industrials to name a few.
On the flip side, there are uncertainties out there. Recession is probably the biggest unknown, with some of the biggest questions around when it might hit, how long it might last, and how significant it could it be. That said, any recession that occurs would appear to be more in the mild range at this point. Perhaps recession is the largest unknown, but we should also factor in the possibility for interest-rate volatility. For example, rates could move higher if inflation remains stubbornly high. Or, they could see a fairly sizable move lower in the event of a recession.
LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2023: The Path Toward Stability delivers market insights on what we can expect in the economy, policy, stocks, and bonds for 2023.