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WHO IS RIGHT, FED OR MARKETS?

WHO IS RIGHT, FED OR MARKETS?

Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks. Who is right? The markets are pricing in several rate cuts by the end of this year, while the Federal Reserve communicated more rate hikes with an expectation of holding rates up...
WHO IS RIGHT, FED OR MARKETS?

NO LANDING = NO SENSE

Suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Analogies eventually break down, especially this one. Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with...
WHAT’S CHANGED AND WHAT IT COULDMEAN

WHAT’S CHANGED AND WHAT IT COULD
MEAN

Markets have adjusted to several changes this year. The pace at which inflation has cooled is slowing. The market has started to believe the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) “higher for longer” message. The bar for earnings has been lowered. Market relationships to interest...
WHO IS RIGHT, FED OR MARKETS?

Q4 EARNINGS PREVIEW: PESSIMISM MAY BE OVERDONE

Fourth quarter earnings season is underway and probably won’t bring much good news. Lackluster global growth, ongoing profit margin pressures from inflation, and negative currency impacts are likely to translate into a year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index...
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